How do Demographics affect the Macroeconomy and Economic Growth?

.@IMF_India #Demography & #Macroeconomics: e.g.#DemographicDividend Early (#India) & Post (#China). How demography affects projected growth rates, how critical immigration is 4 Oz, SG & HK; how 2014-16 #China #RealInterestRate #Rstar is lower than in 2000-07. via @MacroPru pic.twitter.com/4SJwtJIA2U

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) February 21, 2018

pic.twitter.com/b8nobwuFa9

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) February 21, 2018

https://t.co/NhDcjyJICl

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) February 21, 2018

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) - A Patient Invrestor with a Long Horizon

.@cppib A patient investor with a long horizon: Expected Average Hold for #infrastructure assets (utilities, transport, energy, of which ~77% r in North America, & rest in Latin America) - is 20y+; & even for #PrivateEquity for > 5y; compared to industry avg < 3y! (2016 Ann Rep) pic.twitter.com/uDgH6yPCby

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) February 17, 2018

Interestingly, ‘long-term orientation’ is also a national cultural variable that correlates well w/ good #SovereignWealthFund governance. Aggarwal & Goodell (2017) @ClevelandFed @uakron develop & confirm six hypotheses on SWF good governance; also finding them consistent... pic.twitter.com/YF7FOn8ypt

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) February 18, 2018

…w/ a governance ranking developed by Bagnall & Truman @piie using a survey ?aire (4m which #Top10 shown above) #China’s avg national SWF governance score of 67 placed it 17th among 33 countries (& 49 funds) ranked. #Canada’s indicators r averaged over 4 funds (not just @cppib).

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) February 18, 2018

Demographic Trends and the Real Interest Rate

.@bankofengland Staff Working Paper No. 701 'Demographic Trends & the Real Interest Rate': calibrated #Neoclassical #OverlappingGenerations model accounts 4 160bp of the 210bp fall in #Rstar over 1980-2015 - greater propensity to save and hold wealth from higher #LifeExpectancy. pic.twitter.com/BvwfTVlRfD

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) February 12, 2018

The #BoE working paper compares #OLG model simulations with #Rstar estimates from Holston, Laubach, Williams 2017 @federalreserve @sffed as below, and projects a further 37bp decline in #Rstar by 2050 (& even beyond) #AEs in aggregate; + also v interesting indiv cntries esp USA pic.twitter.com/y2Zw5XxsEY

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) February 12, 2018

Climate Change and the Macroeconomy

.@bankofengland Staff Working Paper No.706 ' #ClimateChange & the #Macroeconomy' by Sandra Batten - very nice review of the field. #GDP impacts will b felt both via gradual warming _&_ increase in severity+frequency of #ExtremeEvents - and both in level & growth rate pic.twitter.com/QMl07Bm3h6

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) January 29, 2018

...however, #ExtremeEvents #NaturalCatastrophes #Hurricanes #Cyclones #Earthquakes #Floods etc #CompetingHypotheses for the GDP path: #CreativeDestruction #Recovery2Trend or #NoRecovery pic.twitter.com/QNxWwORg8U

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) January 29, 2018

The case of #HurricaneHarvey illustrates this point nearly perfectly! 'The @DallasFed has repeatedly reported surging or elevated auto sales in its district, after Hurricane Harvey-related floods ruined vehicles and homes.'https://t.co/qjvDxuPbJW

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) January 29, 2018

'while the economy of #PuertoRico, technically an overseas territory of the United States, shrank by 8%, in the wake of a devastating hurricane (#HurricaneMaria) which left much of the island without electricity.' via @EconomicsOne @NinjaEconomics @TheEconomist @ECONdailycharts pic.twitter.com/0RZtlU6GFL

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) January 30, 2018

Convolutional Neural Networks for Gravitational Wave Detection

.@physicsscotland @UofGravity #ConvolutionalNeuralNetworks (6 conv & 3 hidden layers) 2 classify simulated #GravitationalWave transients 4m 0-spin #BBH 5M☉, 95M mergers; 1E3 unique wave4ms; 4E5 'whitened' training samples (50% S, 50% S+N) @LIGO @ego_virgo https://t.co/MlIyydQARU pic.twitter.com/4htJi2oxyA

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) December 20, 2017

#CNN #ConvolutionalNeuralNetwork does better than #MatchedFilter at low #SNR & low #FalseAlarmRate in classification task: even w #GaussianNoise, where MF is expected 2 b optimal, which encourages expectation #DeepLearning might do better/faster #GW detection in #NonGaussianNoise

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) December 20, 2017

Bank of England Experiment Training Neural Net to Predict CPI Inflation

.@bankofengland results of training a 4-layer #DeepLearning #NeuralNetwork 2 predict UK #CPI Inflation on pre-2005 data: network predicts better than #VAR until #GFC hits, then predicts lower CPI; analysis traces this 2 network reliance on #PrivateDebt & #GDHI; v #BankUnderground pic.twitter.com/J3VJO88LBz

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) November 13, 2017

IMF 2015 Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Benjamin S. Bernanke

04 January 2016 Update: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has now posted the paper on which Ben Bernanke based his lecture: Federal Reserve Policy in an International Context. Thanks to David Wessel of the Brookings Institution for the update.

ICYMI: Paper underlying Ben Bernanke's Mundell Fleming lecture is posted https://t.co/RuyAX1Kbve

— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) January 4, 2016

Brazil: The Economic & Political Scene

Watch live streaming video from ascoa at livestream.com

FOMC Chair Janet Yellen Press Conference 17 September 2015

Secretary of Defense Ash Carter at DARPA "Wait, What?": Innovation & National Security

Dr. Ashton Carter spoke to DARPA's "Wait, What? A Future Technology Forum" on September 9, 2015 in St. Louis, MO, the city where the famous Lewis & Clark expedition began in 1804, the site of the St Louis World's Fair a century later, and the city whose spirit was the inspiration for Charles Lindbergh's plane The Spirit of St Louis, in which he crossed the Atlantic solo in 1927. It is also the site of a Boeing plant which the Secretary visited earlier in the day.

The full text of the Secretary's remarks is available here, I found the following excerpt is particularly inspiring:

"...our strength also comes from the longstanding link between the technology community and the government, and that's why I've made building and rebuilding the bridges between us one of my core goals as secretary of defense. Because, going forward, we need the best people, the best technology and the best innovation to remain the world's finest fighting force. Over most of the last 75 years, the bonds between us have been remarkable close. I've observed that from -- seen it from both sides. As a technologist myself, and also serving a number of times in the Defense Department. But while our ties have endured through successes and strains, the challenges and opportunities we face today demand we strengthen our partnership, and it has to be in ways that benefit both of us. We live in a changing world, and our military's excellence is not a birthright. It's not a guarantee. We have to earn it again and again." (emphasis added)

Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter is the second person with a PhD in physics to hold the post, Harold Brown having been the first, while his mentor, Dr. William Perry, who held the post 1994-97, was a mathematics PhD. But he is also majored in Medieval History at Yale, and was a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford, during which time he earned his PhD in theoretical physics. He is truly an inspiring figure in many ways.

MT @chrisquigg If confirmed, Ash Carter would be 2nd Physics PhD as #secretaryofdefense. Harold Brown was 1st; William Perry was Math PhD.

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) December 3, 2014

.@DVIDSHub #SecDef holds up PhD Thesis - Hard Processes in Perturbative QCD - @ #DrellLecture! http://t.co/W3qYPw0nOX pic.twitter.com/Qc3OIl3LA8

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 24, 2015

Zvi Bodie and Marie Briere win 2015 Markowitz Prize

Professor Zvi Bodie of Boston University and Professor Marie Briere of Amundi were awarded the 2015 Harry H. Markowitz Prize by the Journal of Investment Management, for their paper on Sovereign Wealth Funds and Risk Management.

Profs. @zbodie & Briere @amundi_eng win 2015 Markowitz Prize for #JOIM paper on Sovereign Wealth and Risk Management:http://t.co/cJ0xR5X7aj

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) January 29, 2015

Nobel Lectures in Physics 2014: Akasaki, Amano, Nakamura

Leslie Dewan on CNN's Global Public Square: Waste Annihilating Molten Salt Reactor (WAMSR)

IAEA 6th INPRO Forum on Licensing and Safety Issues for SMRs - 29 July - August 2, 2013

The subject of the 6th INPRO (International Project on Innovative Reactors and Fuel Cycles) Dialogue Forum organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna from July 29th to August 2nd 2013 was Licensing and Safety Issues for Small and Medium-Sized Reactors, (SMRs) one of this blog's favorite topics. (The 3rd INPRO Dialogue Forum, held 14-18 November 2011, was also on SMRs, with the title "Common User Considerations for Small and Medium-sized Nuclear Power Reactors").

Dr. David Newland of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission was the Program Chair, with Poong-Eil Juhn of the Republic of Korea as Co-Chair. After an Opening and Introductory session, the second Session was on Experiences and Preparation for SMR Deployment, in which 8 Member States (MSs) of the IAEA - in alphabetical order: Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation and the USA presented the status of their national licensing and safety programs for SMR licensing. There were two presentations from the USA - one each from the Department of Energy (USDOE) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC).

This was followed by a Panel Discussion on Licensing and Safety Issues for SMRs (with Dr. David Newland of Canada, R. Seban of France, M. Ricotti of Italy, S-H Rhee of Korea, and I. Bylov of the Russian Federation as panelists). The conferees then broke out into 5 groups whose topics the organizers had circulated beforehand: (1) Designs; (2) Siting ; (3) Graded Approach in regulatory and licensing process; (4) Legal (5) Public Participation, each of which was briefed by their Group Leader in Session 3, prior to breakout. Session 4 was devoted to presentations from International Organizations: ASME, OECD-NEA, WENRA, and WNA.

In Session 5, the Group Leaders of the Breakout Sessions reported back (1. Soderholm, 2. deVos, 3. Ramakrishna  and 4. Magruder), and Session 6 concluded with reports from:  Mr. M.H. Subki of the IAEA on the questionnaire distributed to participants, Dr. Daniel Ingersoll on a summary of the plenary sessions; a Meeting Summary by the Program Chair Dr. David Newland; and a final word each from Z. Drace of INPRO and J.K. Park of the NENP/IAEA.

The final report on the 6th INPRO Dialogue Forum on Licensing and Safety Issues for SMRs is available here.

(The IAEA also held a Technical Meeting on SMR Technology Development for Near-Term Deployment in Chengdu, China - September 2-4, 2013, and a Technical Meeting on Instrumentation & Control in Advanced SMRs, 21-24 May 2013.)

 

Some Recent Posts on Big Data Topics

@McKinsey_MGI #BigData #MacroImpact 3MainRoutes: CostEfficiencies & ProductivityGains; MarketShareShifts; ConsSurplus http://t.co/E8roBDoM3k
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) July 23, 2013

@McKinsey_MGI #BigData yields Cost Efficiencies & Productivity Gains by Optimizing Labor, Equipment & Processes http://t.co/E8roBDoM3k
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) July 23, 2013

@McKinsey_MGI #BigData => #MarketShareShifts by cutting #TimeToMarket, driving #Sales & reinforcing #BrandingMessages http://t.co/E8roBDoM3k
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) July 23, 2013

@McKinsey_MGI #BigData: enhances #ConsumerSurplus; reduces #SearchTime, enables #Optimal #PriceValue determination http://t.co/E8roBDoM3k
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) July 23, 2013

@McKinsey_MGI #BigData: Avg stored data per firm w/ min 1K employees #InvestmentServices 3,866 TB, #Banking 1,931 TB http://t.co/E8roBDoM3k
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) July 23, 2013

@McKinsey_MGI On #BigData Ease-of-Capture vs Value-Potential Chart, #Finance & #Insurance best situated http://t.co/E8roBDoM3k
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) July 23, 2013