IMF WEO April 2018: Technology Diffusion and Productivity Growth

#IMF #WEO April 2018 Chapter 4: Annual #Productivity Growth in #EmergingMarketEconomies #EMEs over 1995-2014 is ~2%; and for #AEs ~1.5%. But even 4 #EMEs, #Domestic R&D makes a *larger* contribution to #Productivity Growth than #Foreign R&D. R results robust 2 excluding #CHN ? pic.twitter.com/brgfS74LzP

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 10, 2018

Using an augmented #EME data set, authors find Annual #Productivity growth during 1995-2003 to be ~4%, but declining to less than 2% during 2004-14; however, #Foreign R&D contributed a larger share, both relative to 1995-2003, and the smaller data set of the previous figure… pic.twitter.com/L2JTI9ftZH

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 10, 2018

Trade Openness and the 'Path to Riches'

.@blackrock @boijefd #Path2Riches Chart #Global Macro Outlook Feb 2018: Countries [#GDPperCapita as % of US] w #Trade openness: #TWN & #ROK #ExportLedGrowth clear; but 4 #CHN: initial trade opening stalls as #InvestmentLedGrowth takes over, hwvr, #GDPperCapita % US keeps rising! pic.twitter.com/AqgfjnEDim

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) March 3, 2018

...More general lesson Trade is an important channel by which US #Stimulus cd 'spill over' internationally; why #Protectionism, by hampering the most efficient worldwide use of resources, discouraging #bestpractices adoption etc curbs both productivity growth & growth spillovers.

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) March 3, 2018

Of course, keep in mind that even as their #GDPperCapita was rising as % of US, households in #China were saving about a fifth (~20%) of their income, a large fraction of which was channeled into #Investment, which, at its peak in 2011, was ~ 48% of #GDP! https://t.co/eSgzZZZBKQ

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) March 4, 2018