World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2012

The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting begins in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, tomorrow, January 25 2012. In advance of the meeting, the Forum has published its 7th Annual Global Risks Report, created with its partners - Marsh & McLennan, Swiss Re, the Wharton Center for Risk Management, and Zurich Financial Services.

A most interesting read, the report develops 5 major global risk categories – Economic, Environmental, Geopolitical, Societal and Technological, and reports results of a broad survey of risk perceptions among representatives from 5 broad categories of Stakeholder Groups – Business, Academia, NGO, Government, and International Organization. Within the 5 risk categories are a total of 50 risk scenarios, roughly 10 in each risk category, each differing in likelihood and impact – e.g., in the Economic risk category: Chronic Fiscal Imbalances is considered to have the highest likelihood-impact combination; while Major Financial Systemic Failure is considered less likely, but considered to have the highest impact. Unmanageable Inflation or Deflation is considered least likely, while Unforeseen Negative Consequences of Regulations is considered to have the least impact.

The report proceeds to define, in each of the 5 Risk Categories, a Center of Gravity (CoG) – as the risk scenario with the highest (judgment-weighted) combination of likelihood and impact. Thus, the Economic Risk CoG is Chronic Fiscal Imbalances, while the Environmental, Geopolitical, Societal and Technological CoGs are respectively Rising Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Global Governance Failure, Unsustainable Population Growth and Critical Infrastructural Systems Failure. The survey also included a feature where respondents could write in ‘X-factors’ – risk scenarios that had unknown likelihood and impact, but which were nevertheless felt important enough to be thought about. This resulted in risk scenarios such as Volcanic Winter, Mega-accidents, and Neotribalism.

The report develops a series of risk constellations, where the cascading effect of different consequential risk scenarios across the 5 categories is explored. Three major cases are examined – a socio-economic dystopia, a governance dystopia and a technological dystopia, in each case setting out the different combinations of the 50 risk scenarios which could lead to each. The concept of 'critical connectors' is elucidated as the set of risk scenarios which link to the CoG of more than one risk category. Four critical connectors, all of them Economic risk scenarios, link 3 or more of the 5 CoGs.

Finally, the report presents detailed data and analyses of the Survey itself, and I found the data on the differential risk perceptions across the 5 Stakeholder groups, as well as across geographic affiliations particularly interesting. For example, on geographic variation, Europeans rank Chronic Fiscal Imbalances more likely than Middle Easterners and North Africans; while Asians see Unmanageable Inflation or Deflation as more likely than either Europeans or North Americans. Across stakeholder classes, Business saw the likelihood of Negative Consequences of Regulation as being higher than did Academia, while NGOs saw Negative Consequences of Nanotechnology as being more likely than did Academia.

Even more interestingly, subject matter experts (across the 5 stakeholder classes) ranked the likelihood of the scenarios within their area of expertise (among the 50 risk scenarios) higher than generalists across the board (with the exception of nanotechnology, where generalists ranked the likelihood of unforeseen negative consequences higher than subject matter experts). This is very interesting, in that, on macroeconomic, socio-economic or environmental issues, where the risk is more easily grasped by generalists, the general level of concern appears lower than might be warranted, while on 'esoteric' technological issues,which by their nature are harder to properly grasp, the general level of concern appears higher than might be warranted strictly on an existing-knowledge basis.

I have sketched here a rather broad summary of the report, but it is well worth a detailed read. In addition to the themes I have outlined, the report also contains a Special Section on the Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 (the Tohoku quake). In the video clip below, David Cole, Chief Risk Officer at Swiss Re, talks about the WEF's Global Risk Report 2012. He points out that risk assessments conducted by governments and companies in the past have been inadequate, subjecting nations to extreme economic risks. He urges that a Country Risk Officer be appointed for each country, who would aggregate and prioritize different kinds of risks, and bring them to the attention of policymakers.

In another clip within the same playlist, Axel Lehmann, Chief Risk Officer of Zurich Financial Services emphasizes that no single individual, company, or even government can fully appreciate all aspects of the risks involved, and urges, on as many levels as possible, the formation of public-private partnerships for risk identification, analysis and mitigation. Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Director of the Wharton Risk Management Center, in another clip, points out that for high level decision makers, it is necessary to become familiar with all kinds of risks, not only the ones that their training or background predisposes them to consider. He emphasized also that the other side of risk is always opportunity, and the winners are those who not only protect themselves from the negative consequences of risk events, but those who positively profit from them :

Next Steps in Seismic Hazard / Earthquake Loss Assessment Models

Just as the events at the Fukushima nuclear plant following the Tohoku earthquake of 11 March 2011 pointed to new directions in nuclear plant safety assessment (see my earlier blogpost), so also the property/casualty losses following the quake point to logical next steps in earthquake CAT loss models.

The recent Swiss Re Report on Lessons from Recent Major Earthquakes highlighted a number of ways that CAT Models could improve their loss estimates for portfolios insured against earthquakes. Emphasizing first of all that 2011 set the record both for total economic losses from earthquakes ($ 226 B) and for insured claims ($ 47 B), it underlined that the Tohoku earthquake of 11 March 2011, with insured claims of $35 B, was the most expensive natural CAT of all time, not just among earthquakes, but all natural CATs.

Next, the report turned to perceived inadequacies in current generation CAT loss estimation models. The Swiss Re report pointed out that while most CAT models used by property/casualty underwriters appeared to have adequately modeled property losses following from ground shaking alone, they typically underestimated (if they modeled them at all) the losses resulting from secondary loss agents – (i) the tsunami(s) following, (ii) the seismic aftershocks, (iii) soil liquefaction (iv) business interruption (BI) and (v) contingent business interruption (CBI). Losses due to fires following earthquakes, another secondary loss agent, however, appear to be well modeled.

Tsunamis Where CAT modelers had considered tsunamis following quakes, the height, consequent inland penetration, and damaging force of the tsunami were underestimated. This was true both in the Tohoku quake in Japan, as well as with the recent earthquakes in Chile.

Seismic Aftershocks A major seismic event is often followed by aftershocks for a considerable period afterward. In some cases, a single aftershock can be more damaging than the original event; and very often the cumulative impact of the aftershocks is greater than that of the original event. Such cumulative effects and the clustering of smaller magnitude events following the original quake are important contributions to total losses, and need to be modeled more carefully.

Soil Liquefaction This is a phenomenon where, after an earthquake, the soil loses its normal resistance to plastic deformation, and begins to flow like a fluid with a temporal and spatially variable viscosity. This was observed both in the aftermath of the Tohoku quake and in the recent Christchurch quakes in New Zealand, although in the Tohoku quake the tsunami damage far overwhelmed damage from soil liquefaction. As a secondary loss agent, soil liquefaction impacts total property replacement costs in the following ways: by damage from subterranean flooding, costs of land restoration, and in the case of large structures, damage from differential settlement (caused by spatial viscosity variations in the liquefied soil). In geospatial modeling of soil liquefaction potential, important factors to consider include the existence of a shallow ground water table; properties built on reclaimed land, near a river bank, or on poorly consolidated sandy soils that are most prone to liquefaction. Many of these risk factors are easily satisfied in urban areas where large commercial properties are usually built.

Business Interruption (BI) losses are usually underestimated by models, because they underestimate the time period over which production facilities could remain damaged; and Contingent Business Interruption (CBI) losses are usually underestimated by models because they capture insufficiently well supply chain dependencies, location, and geographic factors.

These considerations point to logical next steps for Earthquake CAT loss estimation model developers to undertake as improvements in their models. While the Tohoku earthquake and the tsunami that followed was the most devastating CAT in history, it is worth remarking that, from the modelers' perspective, it was also geophysically the most well-recorded CAT of all time. Following the devastating Kobe quake of 1995, a large, dense, high-bandwidth, high-connectivity and high-sensitivity network of ground motion sensors was set up. This network spanned the area which was impacted by the Tohoku quake and tsunami, both on the ground and in the ocean, thus generating significant amount of data relative to the spatial distribution and magnitude of ground shaking intensity following the quake,both above ground as well as on the ocean-bed. In addition, following the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake-tsunami of 2004, a network of tsunami sensors and deep-water pressure gauges was also set up. The result is that a rich dataset is now available, which modelers can use to calibrate their ground motion loss estimate modules, and the correlation between earthquake moment magnitude with the size of the tsunami it can generate. However, on a larger scale, the lesson of the Tohoku tsunami quake is likely still to be that the historical record of tsunamis following earthquakes is as yet too sparse to enable confidence about the correlation between seismic moment magnitude and the temporal return periods. Nevertheless, CAT modelers can still proceed to remove the underestimation bias in the loss potential from secondary loss agents that was seen following recent earthquakes.

USDOE Issues Funding Opportunity Announcement for SMRs

The US Department of Energy (USDOE) issued a draft Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) this week, intended to support activities related to the design and licensing of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), defined as reactors with an electric output of 300MWe or less; which can be manufactured remotely, transported to point of construction, with on-site assembly largely limited to system integration of components for operation.

Importantly, the USDOE is interested in designs with passive safety (e.g., against consequences of a nuclear accident) as well as inherent safety (e.g., against natural catastrophes such as earthquakes, windstorms or floods), in addition to designs with long inter-refueling periods, low capital cost outlays, low maintenance and operating costs, and high proliferation resistance. The stated intention is to support up to 2 reactor designs through the USNRC design and licensing process, with the ability to be deployed ‘expeditiously’ being an important merit criterion. 2022, a decade from now, is the target year for commercial operation.

Proponents may choose to pursue licensing from the USNRC under either 10 CFR 50 or 10 CFR 52. Stakeholders are encouraged to form consortia, and proponents are encouraged to form design-centered working groups (DCWGs) across the supply and value chains e.g., SMR manufacturers, power utilities, local bodies; and the activities funded by USDOE are required to draw at least 50% of their total resources required, from internal sources. The total amount of funding available from USDOE is estimated to be $452 M, subject to Congressional appropriations. The current draft FOA will be issued in final form after feedback from, and consultation with, stakeholders.

NRC Seeks Prompt Action on Fukushima Near-Term Task Force Recommendations

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission today directed its staff to complete several actions over the next 45 days in response to the 12 recommendations of its Near-Term Task Force on the Fukushima Nuclear Accident, which submitted its report on July 12.

The Commission has asked the staff to produce a paper by September 9, outlining which of the recommendations 2-12 (recommendation 1 was that the entire regulatory framework be holistically reviewed) should be implemented immediately, including a public dialogue on the process, the schedule for which will be announced soon. It has also asked the staff to produce, by October 3, another paper prioritizing recommendations 2-12, explaining the rationale, and also engaging both the public and other stakeholders. Over the next 18 months, the staff will consider recommendation 1, to review the entire regulatory framework, balancing risk -informed regulation, and defence-in-depth considerations.

Gaps in Current Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) Methodology

Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of nuclear reactors (in the IAEA's usage), or Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) in the USNRC's usage, is a technology that is being continually refined, both in response to those of its existing inadequacies that are already known to the original analysts and reviewers, and also in response to events that specifically underline one or more of such gaps. The Fukushima nuclear disaster, for example, increased the perceived urgency of addressing major gaps in nuclear reactor safety analyses and PSA/PRA techniques.

The USNRC was recently briefed on Severe Accidents and Options for Proceeding with Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA Level 3). Meeting Agenda, Slides presented by Biff Bradley from the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) , Stewart Lewis of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Karl N. Fleming (of KNF Consulting), and NRC Staff. Meeting Transcript.

The two main gaps as seen by the US NRC Staff include:

Modeling of Consequential Linked Events
Current PSA techniques have not focused on risk implications of event sequences where a consequent initiating event occurs while a plant is responding to the first. PSA/PRA methodologies traditionally have not considered the risk implications of initiating events leading to accidents at multiple units at the same site - such as the near-simultaneous swamping by the tsunami of diesel generating systems supplying emergency power to several different nuclear reactors, each of which then suffered core damage as a consequence.

Aqueous Dispersion of Radionuclides
The risk implications of a containment breach have traditionally been considered in PRA Level 3, but the focus has been on atmospheric dispersion. Fukushima showed that the possibility of aqueous dispersion of radionuclides, must also be studied and modeled, both from spent reactor fuel pools and from the reactor core itself. The water in the sprays used to cool the spent fuel pools and the core, as emergency measures in severe accident mitigation, resulted in both internal and external floods, and the radiological consequences of radionuclide dispersal through such events deserve to be better understood.

NRC Briefing: Severe Accidents and Level 3 PRA

The staff of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission today held a briefing for the Commissioners on Severe Accidents, and Options for proceeding with Probabilistic Risk Asessment - Level 3 (PRA Level 3).

Traditionally, PRA/PSA Level 3 has not been a strong regulatory requirement because the results of Level 1 (usually the core damage frequency, CDF) and the results of Level 2 (large early release fraction/frequency, LERF) can be used as surrogate proxies for the types of Risk Metrics that a Level 3 PSA/PRA might generate, which could include the following: the number of early fatalities; the number of early injuries, the number of latent cancer fatalities, or the total population dose at different locations; as well as the individual early and latent fatality risk, and the economic cost of mitigation actions taken following a severe accident. The CDF, for example, can proxy for the latent cancer risk, while the LERF could proxy for the prompt fatality risk.

However, a number of potential benefits are foreseen for a full PRA Level 3 analysis, including feedback into risk-informed regulatory guidance for new reactors and use of risk insights in forthcoming SMR design reviews. In addition, capabilities such as modeling of radionuclide aqueous dispersion modes, and multi-unit risk assessment could also be addressed. The modeling of radionuclide dispersal in the event of a severe accident which is initiated by an external event such as an earthquake, tsunami or hurricane also calls for additional modeling efforts, since meteorological variables such as windspeed & direction, ambient precipitation and humidity may not correspond to what is normally expected for that site at that time of year (for example).

NRC Staff plan to use an existing SPAR (Standardized Plant Assessment Risk) model as the basis for proceeding to PSA Level 3. The SPAR model is essentially a plant-specific PSA/PRA Level 1 designed to incorporate both external and internal initiating events, recent modifications of which include capabilities to yield LERFs. Since external hazards are site-specific, much greater value can be expected to be derived if the SPAR model selected for development to PRA Level 3 is for a NPP site that is either representative of the entire population of NPPs, or, has a larger than average number and type of external hazards.

NRC Releases Near-term Report of Fukushima Task Force

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission has released the Near-Term Task Force Review of Insights from the Fukushima Da-ichi Accident: Recommendations for Enhancing Reactor Safety in the 21st Century.

The report has 12 recommendations, which I cite here in full, verbatim.

Clarifying the Regulatory Framework
1. The Task Force recommends establishing a logical, systematic, and coherent regulatory framework for adequate protection that appropriately balances defense-in-depth and risk considerations.
Ensuring Protection
2. The Task Force recommends that the NRC require licensees to reevaluate and upgrade as necessary the design-basis seismic and flooding protection of structures, systems, and components for each operating reactor.
3. The Task Force recommends, as part of the longer term review, that the NRC evaluate potential enhancements to the capability to prevent or mitigate seismically induced fires and floods.
Enhancing Mitigation
4. The Task Force recommends that the NRC strengthen station blackout mitigation capability at all operating and new reactors for design-basis and beyond-design-basis external events.
5. The Task Force recommends requiring reliable hardened vent designs in boiling water reactor facilities with Mark I and Mark II containments. (Section 4.2.2)
6. The Task Force recommends, as part of the longer term review, that the NRC identify insights about hydrogen control and mitigation inside containment or in other buildings as additional information is revealed through further study of the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.
7. The Task Force recommends enhancing spent fuel pool makeup capability and instrumentation for the spent fuel pool.
8. The Task Force recommends strengthening and integrating onsite emergency response capabilities such as emergency operating procedures, severe accident management guidelines, and extensive damage mitigation guidelines .
Strengthening Emergency Preparedness
9. The Task Force recommends that the NRC require that facility emergency plans address prolonged station blackout and multiunit events.
10. The Task Force recommends, as part of the longer term review, that the NRC pursue additional emergency preparedness topics related to multiunit events and prolonged station blackout.
11. The Task Force recommends, as part of the longer term review, that the NRC should pursue emergency preparedness topics related to decisionmaking, radiation monitoring, and public education.
Improving the Efficiency of NRC Programs
12. The Task Force recommends that the NRC strengthen regulatory oversight of licensee safety performance (i.e., the Reactor Oversight Process) by focusing more attention on defense-in-depth requirements consistent with the recommended defense-in-depth framework.

IAEA Course on Natural Circulation Phenomena - Harbin, China

The IAEA is conducting a course on Natural Circulation Phenomena and Passive Safety Systems in Advanced Water-Cooled Reactors at the College of Nuclear Science and Technology of the Harbin Engineering University at Harbin in Northern China, July 11-15, 2011.

Several recent advanced reactor designs (both large reactors like the ESBWR and the AP-1000, and integral pressurized water reactor [iPWR] designs in the SMR category, like mPower, NuScale and the newly announced Westinghouse SMR) propose natural circulation systems for decay heat removal. Other evolutionary designs also propose natural circulation convective systems for heat transfer in regular operation. The site of the first AP-1000 units to be constructed anywhere, the Sanmen Nuclear Power Plant (where two AP-1000 units are currently under construction) with planned in-service dates in 2013-14, is in China. China is also planning 1400 MWe and 1700 MWe variant designs based on the AP-1000, with the CAP-1400 said to be in an advanced design stage. Presumably, these will also utilize passive safety systems based on natural circulation, and this strong interest in natural circulation cooling in China is one of the main reasons that the location of this IAEA course is in Harbin.

The agenda for the course comprises both introductory and advanced lectures, by distinguished researchers in the field of natural circulation cooling, including Drs. Jose Reyes, Dilip Saha, Nusret Aksan, and F. D'Auria, among others. Particularly of interest is the lecture by Dr. Reyes on Thursday 14 July on Flow Stagnation in Single and Two-Phase Natural Circulation Loops [literature citation], which will discuss mechanisms which can interrupt natural circulation - for example, in a PWR, loss of heat sink could result in reverse heat transfer in the steam generator, interrupting single phase natural circulation. This and other mechanisms that interrupt both single- and two-phase natural circulation were studied by Dr. Reyes' group at Oregon State University in special thermalhydraulic loops constructed for the purpose. Scaling relationships are critical in understanding the applicability of results obtained from such loops to real reactor systems, and Dr. Reyes also presents a lecture on Integral System Experiment Scaling Methodology, while Dr. Dilip Saha presents a related lecture on Experimental Validation and Database of Simple Loop Facilities. Developing reliability models of passive safety systems utilizing natural circulation is critical to safety analysis of such reactors, and Prof. F. D'Auria will present a lecture on Reliability of Thermalhydraulic Passive Safety Systems. Generally speaking, studies of natural circulation phenomena are complicated by the fact that the driving force is usually quite weak, as compared, for example, to turbulence or friction that may also be present in the flow.

International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Analysis - PSA 2011

The International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA 2011), sponsored by the American Nuclear Society and Sandia National Laboratories, along with a variety of commercial sponsors, will be underway next week in Wilmington, North Carolina from March 13 to March 17, 2011. Dr. George Apostolakis of the US NRC is the Honorary Chair of the Organizing Committee, while the Technical Committee has four Co-Chairs, one each from the US, Europe, Japan and Korea.

A truly large number of technical sessions are planned, and include several sessions on PSA of New Reactors from internal initiating events (including a very interesting paper on incorporating PSA principles into fusion reactor design, and papers on both gas-cooled and sodium-cooled fast reactors). Also PSA of a variety of hazards including fire, seismic, and flood; as well as PSA of non-reactor nuclear applications. There are sessions on incorporating digital information & control (I & C) systems into nuclear plant PSA; sessions on dynamic PSA (incorporating the dynamic, i.e., changing aspects of a system in to the probabilistic safety assessment [including a very interesting paper using genetic algorithms to explore the space within the failure domain where at least one safety limit is violated].

Several sessions explore Ageing in PSAs - one very interesting paper interpolates state transition probabilities in a Markov Model for estimating reliability of passive components such as metal pipes using physics-based models of weld degradation, instead of in-service failure data for the entire piping component. The paper finds that incorporating such time-inhomogeneous and stochastic transition rates into the Markov Model causes it to become non-Markov.

Interesting panel discussions are planned on: Alternative Risk Metrics, which will consider, among other things, how the promised lower risk numerics for new reactors will be maintained over their reactor life; and how risk profiles will be affected by multiple units in a suite of SMRs (small modular reactors); PRA Standards Development (which will examine, among other things, how the regulatory endorsement of PSAs as a risk management tool impacts the development of risk informed applications).

The conference brings together practitioners of PSA from a variety of disciplines and countries, and promises to be very interesting indeed.

5th International Symposium on Supercritical Water-cooled Reactors ISSCWR-5 Vancouver

The 5th International Symposium on Supercritical Water-cooled Reactors (ISSCWR-5) begins on March 14 2011 in Vancouver. The conference gets underway with five plenary addresses by national and international program managers of respective SCWR/HPLWR programs on the morning of the first day, Monday, and then branches off into three parallel technical sessions in the afternoon: on SCWR Core Design; on Materials Issues and on General Thermalhydraulics and Safety, chaired by international authorities in these respective fields. The session on General Thermalhydraulics and Safety will be co-chaired by Sama Bilbao y Leon of Virginia Commonwealth University and Jovica Riznik of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission.

This pattern of technical sessions continues also on Tuesday; an important facet of the Tuesday morning sessions will be regulatory considerations: a talk by Alexandre Viktorov of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission will be on Regulatory Expectations for Advanced Reactors, while Ima Ituen and David Novog of McMaster University will present on Assessing the Applicability of Canadian Regulations to the SCWR.

On Wednesday morning, there are sessions on Safety Issues and non-Aqueous Fluid Heat Transfer, the latter referring especially to experiments on supercritical carbon dioxide, where considerations on fluid-to-fluid scaling are important in interpreting the results and applying them to the real working fluid, supercritical water. Of the many interesting papers, one which describes a supercritical loop for in-pile testing of materials seemed especially interesting.

On all three days, the pattern of three parallel technical sessions is maintained, testifying to the high level and quality of national and international participation in the conference, and the interesting work on the SCWR that continues apace through the Gen-IV International Forum (GIF). Canada, as the host country [and also the country that formally leads R&D on the SCWR under the GIF] has the highest number of papers - both established groups and newer ones, and both senior researchers and students are presenting papers. Importantly, the Canadian participation shows significant engagement with the SCWR concept, across all major stakeholders: by academic groups, by regulatory authorities, as well as by R&D Labs and industrial firms.

The conference closes on Thursday with a tour of TRIUMF, Canada's national laboratory for nuclear and particle physics, located on the campus of the University of British Columbia. The scenic locale of the conference in Vancouver, and the very interesting papers to be presented, and discussions to be had, plus the social and cultural programs and the tour of TRIUMF promise to make this a most memorable conference in the biannual ISSCWR series.

The Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors

The Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL), the US Department of Energy's (US DOE) Energy Innovation Hub specific to Nuclear Energy, has been formed, headquartered at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) with Dr. Douglas B. Kothe as Director of CASL.

The basic mission of the CASL is to create a virtual reactor (VR) to computationally model and predictively simulate the operation of light water reactors, with a view to (i) decreasing overall capital and operating costs associated with LWRs (ii) decreasing spent nuclear fuel volume generated by LWRs (iii) improving nuclear safety performance, especially by developing computational tools which better predict ageing, degradation and failure of LWR materials and components. The objective is both to impact the sustainability program for current generation light water reactors, as well as to impact the design of future generation nuclear reactors.

The Core partners in CASL are Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Idaho National Lab (INL), Los Alamos National Lab (LANL), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), North Carolina State University (NCSU), Sandia National Labs, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), University of Michigan, and Westinghouse Electric Company.

The operational structure and mission statement of CASL explicitly incorporates the vision US Secretary of Energy Dr. Chu has articulated, for example, of 'Bell Labs-like institutions which are mission-driven but solve fundamental problems as well'. See here.

In CASL Director Dr. Kothe's words, (CASL):

• Focuses on a single topic, with work spanning the gamut, from basic research through engineering development to partnering with industry in commercialization
• (creates) Large, highly integrated and collaborative creative teams working to solve priority
technology challenges
• Embraces both the goals of understanding and use, without erecting barriers between
basic and applied research (emphasis added).

Link

To develop the VR, CASL has been organized into five technical focus areas (FAs) to perform the necessary work ranging from basic science, model development, and software engineering, to applications:

Advanced Modeling Applications (AMA) – The primary interface of the CASL VR with the applications related to existing physical reactors, the challenge problems, and full-scale validation. In addition, AMA will provide the necessary direction to the VR development by developing the set of functional requirements, prioritizing the modeling needs, and performing assessments of capability.

Virtual Reactor Integration (VRI) – Develops the CASL VR tools integrating the models, methods, and data developed by other Focus Areas within a software framework. VRI will collaborate with AMA to deliver usable tools for performing the analyses, guided by the functional requirements developed by AMA.

Models and Numerical Methods (MNM) – Advances existing and develops new fundamental modeling capabilities for nuclear analysis and associated integration with solver environments utilizing large-scale parallel systems. The primary mission of MNM is to deliver radiation transport and T-H components that meet the rigorous physical model and numerical algorithm requirements of the VR. MNM will collaborate closely with MPO for sub-grid material and chemistry models and will connect to VRI for integration and development of the CASL VR.

Materials Performance and Optimization (MPO) – Develops improved materials performance models for fuels, cladding, and structural materials to provide better prediction of fuel and material failure. The science work performed by MPO will provide the means to reduce the reliance on empirical correlations and to enable the use of an expanded range of materials and fuel forms.

Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VUQ) – The quantification of uncertainties and associated validation of the VR models and integrated system are essential to the application of modeling and simulation to reactor applications. Improvements in the determination of operating and safety margins will directly contribute to the ability to uprate reactors and extend their lifetimes. The methods proposed under VUQ will significantly advance the state of the art of nuclear analysis and support the transition from integral experiments to the integration of small-scale separate-effect experiments

The European PERFECT Project shares many of the goals of the CASL, in developing 'virtual reactors', though the PERFECT project aims to develop 2, one each for the reactor pressure vessel and the internal structures. The first will concentrate on modeling irradiation degradation, while the second will concentrate on the corrosion faced by internal structures.

American Nuclear Society Annual Meeting - ANS 2010

The American Nuclear Society (ANS) will hold its 2010 Annual Meeting in San Diego later this month (June 13-17 2010). It will likely be the world's largest conference of nuclear science and technology professionals, and its packed program is breathtaking in the scope, breadth and depth of coverage it provides of the hottest current topics in nuclear science, technology and policy.

I will simply indicate a few of what I consider very interesting sessions and add a comment or two by way of context. As can be expected, most of these are in areas of my research or consulting interest.

First, the Conference will include an Embedded Topical Meeting on the Safety and Management of Nuclear Hydrogen Production, Control and Management - the second such (the first having been held at ANS 2007). Among other interesting papers in this session is one on Probabilistic Safety Analysis of a hydrogen production plant using the Sulphur-Iodine process, with process heat derived from a High Temperature Test Reactor by a Korean group. This directly relates to topics I have discussed in my earlier papers: Safety Issues in Nuclear Hydrogen Production with with the Very High Temperature Reactor and Nuclear Hydrogen Production: Scoping the Safety Issues.

Secondly, the Conference will include a Session on Key Licensing and Regulatory Issues for Small and Medium Reactors, followed by a panel discussion with panelists from INL and the US NRC - I have discussed this topic earlier in other blog posts, and its importance can scarcely be over-emphasized. A group from GE will be discussing the licensing strategy for the PRISM (Power Reactor Innovative Small Module) liquid sodium-cooled reactor, while a group from KAERI (Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute) will discuss the SMART (System-integrated Modular Advanced Reactor) - a water-cooled reactor with integral steam generators that is designed for power (about 100 MWe per module), seawater desalination, and process heat applications. A separate session on Safety Analysis and Licensing of non-LWR Reactor Concepts, should similarly be of strong interest - discussing gas-cooled and liquid-sodium cooled reactors from both an experimental and simulation perspective.

A related session will cover the Thermal Hydraulics of the VHTR (gas-cooled variant), relevant in the context of the licensing of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. This session will cover ongoing experimental and computational/simulation of VHTR thermalhydraulics at the Oregon State University and INL - particularly on Loss of Flow and Pressurized Conduction Cooldown events in High temperature Reactors. The important issue of scaling - the ability to draw numerical comparisons and conclusions that are valid for real reactors from experiments and simulations done on smaller systems - will be the topic of a paper from Oregon State that should be of particular interest.

The issue of Scaling Methods will also be the topic of a special Tutorial Session, to be conducted by Dr. Pradip Saha of GE and Prof. Jose Reyes of Oregon State - that will discuss issues of scaling particularly with reference to LWRs - methods of dimensional analysis, method of similitude and normalization of governing equations will be discussed.

The topic of Nuclear Fuel and Structural Materials for Next Generation Nuclear Reactors will be the focus of another Embedded Topical Meeting, a topic I have worked on and discussed in several earlier papers and presentations (and blog posts: here, here and here).

I need hardly add that the Conference promises to be extremely interesting indeed!

Probabilistic Safety Analysis and Management Conference, PSAM-10

The 10th International Probabilistic Safety Analysis and Management Conference (PSAM10), organized by the International Association for Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (IAPSAM), begins in Seattle next month (June 7-11, 2010). The conference will deal with probabilistic safety analysis and risk assessment in a number of industrial settings, including aviation, maritime and space, as well as civil engineering applications such as water treatment facilities - but will have a particular focus on the nuclear industry. The conference is sponsored in part by Scandpower Risk Management, a major nuclear risk consultancy and division of the Lloyd's Register group.

The Plenary Speaker in the nuclear track will be Dr. George Apostolakis, the MIT Professor and nuclear PSA expert who joined the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission as a Commissioner last month. Dr. Apostolakis has done pioneering work on licensing issues and probabilistic safety analysis of gas cooled and fast reactors that is of particular relevance to the US Next Generation Nuclear Plant project. His group has also contributed a paper at PSAM10 on how the computational burden in estimating failure probabilities in a passive thermal-hydraulic system may be reduced using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and Quadratic Response Surface Models (that I find to be of particular interest, given my own past background in using similar techniques).

The Apostolakis group also has another contributed paper on a new class of importance measures for PSAs which they call the limit exceedance factor (LEF)- defined as the factor by which the failure probability of a given component in a nuclear plant must be multiplied so that it results in an end-state probability (such as the core damage frequency CDF) exceeding a specified limit, for example, 1E-6. This is shown to be particularly relevant in the technology neutral framework (TNF) for assessing reactors that the NRC has developed - where, rather than specific design basis events (DBEs) being considered, a set of licensing basis events (LBEs) is considered instead, whose frequency and dose must satisfy certain limits. This paper is particularly of interest, since it applies the methodology to sodium-cooled reactors, which are of interest both in the SMR and Gen-IV contexts.

There are several other contributed papers from the US NRC, of which a paper on the Standardized Plant Assessment Risk (SPAR) model, developed for the NRC by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) detailing its application to the AP1000 Reactor, and planned extensions to the ABWR, ESBWR, US-EPR and US-ABWR reactor designs is of particular interest to me, and there are also papers from INL on other aspects of SPAR development.

Dr. Philippe Hessel of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) will present a paper on the methodology used by the CNSC staff to carry out safety assessments of reactor licensing submissions which contain both probabilistic and deterministic arguments.

A paper on preliminary design-phase Probabilistic Risk Assessment of The NuScale Reactor, a modular, scalable 45 MWe Light Water Reactor (SMR) - is also of great interest, given the current excitement in small and modular reactors. Of the many other interesting papers, there are also papers on risk analysis of a Mars base and another on risk analysis for a crewed Mars mission - from a group based at NASA Moffett Field.

In the session on Ageing Management of Nuclear Power Plants - a paper on a new class of PRA risk measures that are able to (i) overcome the limitation imposed by the current inability to use dynamic failure rate data on component failure rates, and (ii) the limitation arising from not including passive components in the PRA - by a group from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory - seemed very interesting, because these risk measures are claimed to enable better plant ageing management, and also help prioritize directions in materials degradation research.

In addition to all these, the conference will also cover a multitude of risk analysis areas such as those in seismic or hurricane hazards, fire hazard, the hazard from lightning events (especially critical for electrical power distribution grids); as well as other energy sectors such as risk assessment for geological sequestration (both of spent nuclear fuel and carbon dioxide) as well as for the use of hydrogen as a fuel in transportation applications, and miscellaneous nuclear and non-nuclear applications in medicine.

What is remarkable about the meeting is that it brings together practitioners of Probabilistic Safety Analysis and Risk Management from a variety of disciplines, while retaining a strong emphasis on nuclear-related PSA applications, with the potential for the different application domains of PSA to cross-fertilize, as well as being an opportunity for the practitioners from each discipline to learn from each other.

2nd Canada-China Joint Workshop on Supercritical Water-cooled Reactors (CCSC-2010)

The 2nd Canada-China Joint Workshop on Supercritical Water-cooled Reactors was held in Toronto earlier this week. (The 1st workshop had been held in Shanghai, China in April 2008.) The Supercritical Water-cooled Reactor (SCWR) is a Generation IV water-cooled reactor concept that holds the most promise for higher efficiency, on account of its higher operating temperature range, the hoped-for single phase (supercritical) operation (i.e., not having to deal with two-phase flow), the thermophysical properties (especially thermal conductivity and specific heat) of supercritical water, and the resulting saving in balance of plant pumps and compressors and secondary loop tubing and systems. What adds to the attractiveness of the concept is the possibility of realizing it within the Pressure Tube (PT) reactor design envelope, and moreover, the possibility of advanced fuel cycles involving thorium fuel within the concept.

However, a number of challenges also exist, which must be resolved through R&D, before the concept can become a realistic design. Within the Generation IV International Forum, Canada leads R&D work on the SCWR concept, and the purpose of the workshop this week was for Canadian and Chinese researchers to share the results of their respective R&D projects on materials, thermalhydraulics, water chemistry, and fuel cycle issues, in addition to more explicit considerations involving safety and licensing related foresight.

Over the three days of the workshop, there were two broad parallel tracks - sessions devoted to (i) materials issues and chemistry; and (ii) sessions devoted to thermalhydraulics, with an interspersed session each on reactor physics, licensing and safety, and nuclear hydrogen production with SCWR heat. Much of the work presented at the conference comprised sharply focused investigations along pre-established R&D priorities that had been scoped out in the basic SCWR R&D plan - both experimental and simulational investigations were presented. 

A significant departure from standard PHWR (CANDU) design that is being considered in the PT-SCWR (CANDU-SCWR) concept involves vertical pressure tubes (as opposed to the horizontal pressure tubes that are standard in PHWRs). Thus, two papers comparing supercritical and subcritical heat transfer correlations and characteristics in vertical pressure tubes, one each from Canada and China, were of particular interest.

Since supercritical water presents significant operating challenges, experimental work often uses surrogate fluids such as supercritical carbon dioxide. An entire session on the thermalhydraulics track was therefore devoted to surrogate fluids. Use of surrogate fluids then necessitates an understanding of two kinds of scaling issues - between experimental loop and a real reactor; and between surrogate fluid and real supercritical water (the 'working fluid').

Two very interesting papers discussed these issues. One paper, from Canada, discussed the supercritical thermalhydraulic loop currently being constructed at the University of Ottawa, while the other, from China, discussed fluid-to-fluid scaling issues. In developing fluid-to-fluid scaling, similarity relationships are often employed, for example, by using dimensionless variables like the ratio of actual pressure to critical pressure - which directly scales with the ratio of temperature to critical temperature for the two different fluids - in the same way. Although the relevant ranges of temperature and pressure at which the behavior develops can be different - the dimensionless ratio behaves in the same way - thus the behavior of the fluid with more easily reachable temperature and pressures (the modelling fluid or surrogate fluid) can be used to perform detailed experimental studies, while the behavior of the fluid with the more stressful operating conditions (the working fluid) can be inferred from the similarity scaling relationship. (Such invariant scaling relationships occur quite widely elsewhere in physics also, with quantities like the magnetization or the superfluid density, for example, in spin glasses or superconductors.) More details are available here [1].

Prof. David Novog's group from McMaster University, and Prof. Guy Marleau's group from Ecole Polytechnique (Montreal) presented papers on safety issues for the Supercritical Water-cooled Reactor.

Overall, the conference covered significant ground in its three days and also included one side trip to NRCan's Material Technology Laboratory (MTL) at Ottawa and another to AECL's Chalk River Laboratories (CRL).

References

1. Groeneveld, D.C., Tavoularis, S., et al Nucl. Eng. Technology vol. 40 no. 2, 107-116, 2007.

Two Energy Materials Conferences in Karlsruhe

Karlsruhe, the Southwest German town, home to the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe [The Karsruhe Research Center - a major German center for nuclear research) and the Karlsruhe Institut fur Technologie, will host two separate Conferences on Materials for Energy Applications this year - in July and October respectively.

The July Conference (EnMat 2010) will mainly deal with materials for non-nuclear energy applications - Hydrogen Storage, Fuel Cells, Thermoelectrics, and related topics (though there will also be a plenary talk on Fusion Materials - this is especially interesting since Fusion does represent, well, a fusion of hydrogen and nuclear technologies). Extremely interestingly, a Fusion plant can be conceived as a complete hydrogen economy - it uses two isotopes of hydrogen - deuterium and tritium as fuel, generates (or breeds) tritium as a byproduct, and the resulting fusion heat can be used to split water either thermo-chemically or electrochemically to yield molecular hydrogen - which can be used in fuel cells to generate electricity, or burnt in internal combustion engines directly. [I discussed this fascinating possibility in my presentation Nuclear Hydrogen Production: Re-examining the Fusion Option and the accompanying paper at the Canadian Hydrogen Association Meeting in 2007.] Fusion does indeed look even more interesting when viewed from the Hydrogen Economy prism.

The October Conference (NuMat 2010) will deal mainly with Materials for Nuclear Applications - fuel materials as well as structural materials for nuclear plants. NuMat 2010 will be a combined venue for several conferences on related topics which have previously been occurring separately, and there will be 6 major themes at NuMat 2010:
* Thermodynamics and Thermophysics of Nuclear Fuels
* Materials Models and Simulations for Nuclear Fuels
* Radiation Stability of Complex Microstructures
* Molten Salts for Nuclear Applications
* Structural and Functional Materials for Fission Reactors
* Structural Materials Modelling and Simulation