The #Fed's #SHED survey also finds, even more remarkably, that nearly a quarter of US adults are either 'Unbanked' or 'Underbanked', where 'underbanked' people have a bank account, but still use 'alternative financial services' for liquidity or credit pic.twitter.com/olPKuWUc4H— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 31, 2018
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 31, 2018
.@federalreserve’s Survey of Household Economics & Decisionmaking (SHED) conducted in the 4Q of every year. Figure shows adults self-reporting as ‘struggling financially’ in the SHED survey & the @BLS unemployment rate at the same time: pic.twitter.com/KFnhquPgWG— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 31, 2018
The SHED report notes the consistency; but the correlation is actually 100%! Since the two measures r arrived at via different surveys, the strong correlation is remarkable in itself, but w other data in SHED survey, also strengthens intuitive inference of a causal connection.— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 31, 2018
This is also related, of course, to the #GigEconomy – not just unemployment but tenuousness of employment. SHED survey finds: of those US adults in #GigWork who had Bachelor’s degrees, 37% felt that money from gig work was ‘somewhat’ or ‘very’ important to their family incomes. pic.twitter.com/qcjELzgiFK— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 31, 2018
.@madan_sabnavis @CARE_Ratings #India #Economy Gr8 article in @businessline: shortcomings in #GDP as index of economic activity overall & details: many proxies/imputations - amended, with differing lags, resulting in multiple revisions to initial estimates https://t.co/bsxtmIE7r4— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 29, 2018
...in #Agriculture, e.g. - there are no stats on #Livestock, while in #Manufacturing – informal sector production (~30%) is imputed via the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) while organized sector production is taken from corporate data, & ~ly for #Hospitality & #RealEstate!— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 29, 2018
And in the #Government sector, where one might expect near exact data, budgeted spending levels r a weak proxy because, e.g.,#FiscalDeficit reduction via mid-year #CapEx↓ r not captured…We use #GDP as an index of economic activity today only because nothing better is available.— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 29, 2018
.@piie In tightly argued piece reversing a previous position - that #ItalExit 4m #EMU & even 4m #EU could conceivably come 2 pass, @ojblanchard1, @jzettelmeyer & @smerler finally conclude that saner minds in the Italian Senate @SenatoStampa or a Presidential veto might prevent it pic.twitter.com/uY1xjLSB57— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 25, 2018
The situation is rich, one might add, w ironies - although 'veto' itself is a Latin word, and the concept originated in ancient Rome as the 'intercessio' meant to empower tribunes on behalf of Plebeians against Patricians - modern Italy actually has only a weak Presidential veto— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 25, 2018
...which can be overridden by a simple majority in Parliament. In discussing how the @ecb's #QuantitativeEasing may not apply to Italian bonds after a downgrade, one might note also that the current @ecb President is a former @bancaditalia Governor (& continuing as Emeritus...)— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 25, 2018
.@EconomistDK @CRISILLimited India #Economy #Growth slowing in #Labour Intensive sectors: btwn 2015-16 & 2017-18, y-o-y growth in #Construction (labour intensity ~12.0) slipped from 4.0% to 3.0%, while in #Mfg (labour intensity ~8.0), growth slipped even more, 4m 10.0% to ~6.5%. pic.twitter.com/g3BMqNr0Sw— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 26, 2018
Reminded me of Prof Vijay Joshi's #LKJha #MemorialLecture @RBI where he explicitly pointed to raising the #LabourIntensity of India's growth and esp its exports as the main challenge - labour laws + #ExchangeRate management etc:— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 26, 2018
Vijay Joshi @MertonCollege @UniofOxford & author of '#India's #LongRoad' https://t.co/T9wvw2MctQ … … also gave the @RBI #LKJha #MemorialLecture - a rare #GlassHalfEmpty #OneHandedEconomist's analysis of India's policy challenges: the main one, #EmploymentGeneration, requires:— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 30, 2018
...increasing the #LaborIntensity of India's Growth, and esp its #Exports - which requires both #LaborMarketReform (largely outside @RBI’s remit) +#ExchangeRate management – diagnoses the 2004-17 exchange rate ↑ as having been caused by the #DutchDisease – large capital inflows; pic.twitter.com/shMDXD1iFM— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 30, 2018
.@GuntramWolff argues that the #EU will need a three-pronged long-term strategy: to improve its own #Investment climate; to enhance its own #Security capacity; and to strengthen further its #Innovation, especially in the digital domain. https://t.co/SmXMMOqK52— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 13, 2018
.@ojblanchard1 @piie asks if #MiltonFriedman’s #NaturalRate hypothesis (of #Unemployment /#PotentialOutput) still holds up. @LHsummers: 'Any reasonable reader of the data’ would see that post#GFC trend US & EU #PotentialOutput (instead) confirms #Hysteresis doctrine (Phelps 1972) pic.twitter.com/CHZRADsJwe— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 11, 2018
‘Macroeconomic evidence suggests *persistent effects* of monetary policy on natural unemployment rate & potential output; most persuasive microeconomic channel: high unemployment → lower worker morale/skills, ↓ LFPR, thus persistent ↓ potential output’ https://t.co/HgLem0IHpR— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 11, 2018
.@ojblanchard1: ‘I believe that there is a strong (though not overwhelming) case, to allow US output to exceed potential for some time, so as to reintegrate some of the workers who left the labor force during the last ten years.’— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 11, 2018
#Geopolitical Risk (Iran); #Political #Macroeconomic Risk (Venezuela) combine with strong demand and decreased supply to increase oil prices, which creates #Inflation risk, which might end up raising interest rates (in US and elsewhere)...thus possibly resulting in lower #Growth! https://t.co/dMtPAA5Pqu— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 8, 2018
.@CroftHelima @RBC “There was this view that we were post-geopolitics” as a result of an oversupplied market, said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at @RBC. “Now we’re really seeing the reckoning for that.” @WSJecon: 14% ↑ oil prices last mth cd be entirely #GeoPolitical— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 8, 2018
Barendra Bhoi (ex Head @RBI Monetary Dept) @businessline: ↑#OilPrices cd impact #India’s #Macroeconomy #Inflation #CurrentAccount #FiscalDeficit; suggests: *if* ad valorem taxes on petrol etc meet #FiscalTarget @ $70/bbl (just reached) #GoI ↓ these taxes as oil prices ↑ higher
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 8, 2018
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 8, 2018
.@EconomicTimes Jobs created in #India 2017-18? 1.4M (@_CMIE) or 15M (@surjitbhalla @EACtoPM)? From 2019 on, #NationalSampleSurveyOffice annual rural & quarterly urban surveys - w seasonal & geog adjustments may end such controversies; says @sumanlayakET https://t.co/7Kh76S2gd1— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 6, 2018
'#Italy's fiscal problems arise not from recent profligacy - except 2009 (imm post-#GFC), its primary balance (ie excluding interest payments) has been surplus for 2 decades.' The root cause is high debt 4m 1980s & low growth post-1998 #EMU; plus 'cronyism & familyism' @zingales https://t.co/rgeCw31ey2— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 6, 2018
.@voxeu @GuntramWolff on #EuroArea's structural weakness & macroeconomic imbalance: priority that #Germany address its low investment, #France its overly high & inefficient government expenditure; & #Italy its low productivity growth & weak institutions. https://t.co/UF0wnhh0ka— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 6, 2018
.@mihirssharma: With oil prices rising, #India faces a ↑ #CurrentAccount deficit ≲— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 5, 2018
2.9% GDP, a depreciating ₹, a tightening monetary stance in part 2 stem domestic inflation; thus perhaps even a slowing economy in 2018-19... (But) 'import dependence... https://t.co/h0vp0muVDW
... need not be a chronic disease. There is a cure: Exports'! (India's exports have fallen to their lowest level as %GDP since ~2003! Any fall in the ₹ should be seen as the boost it can actually be for exports... via @EconomistDK @bsindia @bopinion— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 5, 2018
.@BeckerFriedman Prof Greenstone ~22:10 in video says his 'private sector #Macroeconomics practitioner' friends often mention importance of #BusinessConfidence 4 #EconGrowth Cc: @IMateosylago @boijefd. @arvindsubraman talks of #Keynes' '#AnimalSpirits' + his work w @rodrikdani... https://t.co/JjndGSoBoJ— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 3, 2018
— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 3, 2018
.@BusinessLine Sidharth Birla on trans4ming #India’s #ConsumptionLedGrowth 2 #InvestmentLedGrowth: suggests investment being held back ∵ perceived ‘overall risk of doing business’ may be > ‘pure business risk’. Possible useful metric #BusinessConfidence https://t.co/r3oB0N92LL— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 3, 2018
.@beckerfriedman Q 4 @arvindsubraman #Inequality & what 2 do about it? A: In India, income ↑ across all deciles, so not worried much about @PikettyLeMonde critique; more worried re inter-regional/caste/religion inequality. (unlike #China, convergence across states hs not happ'd) https://t.co/JjndGSoBoJ— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 3, 2018
To decrease income inequality & improve/hasten inter-regional etc convergence, need to improve #HumanCapital via better (& improved access to) #Health + #Education. And #NextBigReform? A: First let's do all the ones already embraced! 'The List of #ThingsToBeDone is Infinite!'— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) May 3, 2018
