GeoPolitics and the India-Iran Chabahar Port Project

#GeoPolitics In the @CSIS report ‘China’s Maritime #SilkRoad’ (#CMSR) Prof Harsh Pant @KingsCollegeLon discusses the #India-#Iran #Chabahar Port Project (which potentially yields an #India-#Europe land route that bypasses the #SuezCanal)… pic.twitter.com/AxOIYOVoe3

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 21, 2018

...and how #China could end up being in it – in part because Iran’s vision (in which #Teheran is @ the center of a Vienna-Beijing rail line) blends better w China’s overall vision under #CMSR & #OBOR, but also because of #China's gr8r experience in delivering on such projects... pic.twitter.com/wSMpwi424S

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 21, 2018

via @gurmeetkanwal @seemasirohi #GreatMapshttps://t.co/HIYc3vfG6s pic.twitter.com/EK55J7LH9i

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 21, 2018

Inter-Country Economic Growth Correlations and Globalization

...for #AEs, the #DebtLimit increases till all debt is #GDP-linked, but 4 #EMs, the marginal effect on #DebtLimt begins to decline after ~60% debt is #GDP-linked...some caveats apply: #MoralHazard #RiskAppetite etc & the analysis may need 2 b modified 4 cntrys in a #CurrencyUnion

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) March 29, 2018

.@jeanboivin @IMateosylago @blackrock look at #GDP #Growth 1978-2017 4 the 18 largest #AEs & #EMs, find – ~half of individual country variance in #GDP Growth rates (18 largest #AEs & #EMs) can b explained by a single common factor that is highly correlated w ‘business confidence’ pic.twitter.com/JVYR1T1nFV

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 2, 2018

Growth 1998-2017 is more highly correlated than 1978-97. Impact of #GeoEconomic events eg #EUExpansion #ChinaAccession 2 #WTO, '97 #AsianCrisis, #NAFTA clearly seen. #Protectionism can harm future #Growth not just via the trade channel, but also through the #Confidence channel.

— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 2, 2018