...for #AEs, the #DebtLimit increases till all debt is #GDP-linked, but 4 #EMs, the marginal effect on #DebtLimt begins to decline after ~60% debt is #GDP-linked...some caveats apply: #MoralHazard #RiskAppetite etc & the analysis may need 2 b modified 4 cntrys in a #CurrencyUnion— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) March 29, 2018
.@jeanboivin @IMateosylago @blackrock look at #GDP #Growth 1978-2017 4 the 18 largest #AEs & #EMs, find – ~half of individual country variance in #GDP Growth rates (18 largest #AEs & #EMs) can b explained by a single common factor that is highly correlated w ‘business confidence’ pic.twitter.com/JVYR1T1nFV— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 2, 2018
Growth 1998-2017 is more highly correlated than 1978-97. Impact of #GeoEconomic events eg #EUExpansion #ChinaAccession 2 #WTO, '97 #AsianCrisis, #NAFTA clearly seen. #Protectionism can harm future #Growth not just via the trade channel, but also through the #Confidence channel.— Satyen Baindur (@Satyen_Baindur) April 2, 2018
