Monday, May 20, 2019

Jonathan Garner of Morgan Stanley on BloombergQuint

Jonathan Garner of speaks with on is expectations for the Indian economy following the release of Exit Poll results on the 2019 General Elections (but pending the results themselves). He expects the Reserve Bank of India, to lower rates by about 50bp over the next 12 months; he expects that GDP growth will rise (more in an upward mean-reverting phenomenon than in reacting to any specific positive development). He expects this to happen as the Indian economy recovers from the series of demand and/or liquidity shocks it has experienced over the last 2 years - including demonetization, the introducton of the GST, the IL&FS and the non-banking financial companies scandals, and the monetary policy actions by the RBI [rate increases during 2018]). He expects as a consequence that the Indian Rupee will appreciate against the US dollar, to about $ @ mid60s₹  over the next 12-18 months; and the Sensex to rise to 42,000 some what sooner, over the next 12 months.